NFL Divisional Round Preview: Jags vs. Chiefs
After the insanity that was Super Wild Card Weekend, one can only guess what's in store for the Divisional round. Arguably the biggest story of the whole weekend was the Los Angeles Chargers blowing a 27-0 lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars that put Brandon Staley's future with the Bolts in jeopardy and allowed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to overcome a first half where he threw four interceptions.
However, Jacksonville miraculously came back and won as a 36-yard field goal by Riley Patterson went through the uprights as time expired. Lawrence and company now venture away from Duval County and head to one of the NFL's most intimidating atmospheres to play the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and MVP favorite quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
In his five seasons as a full-time starter, Mahomes has never played a playoff game as the visitor. The only losses a Mahomes-lead Chiefs team has suffered in Arrowhead were the AFC Championship games in 2019 and 2022.
Since Andy Reid assumed the head coaching position in 2013, Kansas City has reached the ten-win mark and the playoffs in nine of the last ten years. This Chiefs team looks nearly unbeatable with players who can make a case for being the best at their position, like Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce.
On the other side, Jacksonville came out of nowhere to win the weakest division in the AFC. After suffering a loss to Kansas City in Week 10, the Jaguars headed into their bye with an 8.5% chance to make the postseason according to ESPN.
The Jags came together and rattled off wins in six of their last seven games, including a victory over the Titans in a winner take all divisional game in Week 18. Jacksonville got hot at the right time, and their quarterback began to show flashes of the generational talent that so many experts claimed he possessed since he was a freshman for Clemson.
In the first meeting between these two teams, Mahomes torched the Jacksonville defense, tossing four touchdowns and spreading the ball to nine different receivers. The lone bright spot for the Jaguars in that game was wide receiver Christian Kirk who hauled in nine catches for over 100 yards and two scores in the 27-17 defeat.
A key matchup to watch in this one is Jacksonville's offensive line vs. Kansas City's pass rush. Lawrence was well-protected against the Chargers’ defensive stars, Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, and the Jaguars' unit finished the regular season top five in sacks allowed.
Kansas City counters one of Jacksonville's most prominent strengths with the number two ranked rushing defense in terms of sacks, led by Chris Jones, who finished 2022 with 15.5 sacks. In their Week 10 game, Lawrence was sacked five times.
On paper, this bout can seem like a lopsided affair. The Vegas odds for the contest have Kansas City favored by 8.5, and many predict the Chiefs to have a handle on the game from the start.
But just as Achilles had his heel, the Chiefs have their pass defense, which allowed 33 touchdowns, the worst in the NFL by a healthy margin. The Chiefs also finished in the bottom ten in team interceptions, so if Lawrence performs the way he did in the second half against the Chargers, Jacksonville should be able to keep pace long enough and stay with Kansas City.
This game seems like it's going to be a track meet. Neither defense is stellar and both teams have offensive weapons everywhere.
In the end, the Chiefs pull away in the fourth quarter as Travis Kelce has one of those games where no one on the field can cover him and he and Mahomes connect for at least ten receptions.
Prediction: Kansas City 35, Jacksonville 27
JC Colavita is a junior majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email jrc6383@psu.edu.
