ComRadio Draft Show Rating: Quarterbacks

Story posted February 22, 2013 in Sports, CommRadio, NFL Draft by Marco Ranzi and Jeff Lowe

ComRadio Draft Show Rating 2013: Quarterbacks

This rating takes into account the offensive efficiency, or FEI, of the team the player was on throughout the course of his college career, the strength of the defensive opponents that they face and the percentage of involvement the player had with his offense based on the player’s amount of touches relative to the total amount of completed plays. The initial efficiency numbers are taken from the Football Outsiders website. For a further explanation on how they are calculated, see the bottom of the post.

You first take the percentage of player involvement and convert it to decimals by dividing the percentage by 100. Once this is done, take the now decimal percentage and multiply it by the offensive FEI. Take this solution and subtract the offensive strength of schedule. When you are left with your result, divide it by player involvement and then multiply by 100 to get the ComRadio Draft Show Rating.

FORMULA

(([Player Involvement x Offensive Efficiency] – Offensive Strength Of Schedule) / Player Involvement) x 100 = CDSR

*Multiplying by 100 at the end has been added for the 2013 CDSR Rankings*

The efficiency of a player and his offense in college can go a long way towards determining if a player is worth drafting. This rating helps simplify the various elements of football efficiency into a base number.

There are two sets of rankings in the following chart – one of them sorts the players by their average CDSR throughout their entire careers, while the other sorts the players by their CDSR from their final collegiate season. For quarterbacks, a player needs to have registered a minimum of six starts for his statistics to count.

Last year the rankings showed that, in terms of efficiency, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill were the top prospects to take a chance on. All of these projections proved to be accurate, especially in the case of Russell Wilson. As many know, Wilson went on to lead the Seahawks all the way to the NFC Divisional round of the 2012-2013 NFL Playoffs. Will the CDSR project another NFL Draft sleeper to become a stud in the NFL? Scroll down to find out.

ComRadio NFL Draft Scout Patrick Woo has his rankings on the far left, and next to those numbers are the players’ respective rankings using the CDSR. We have also added a column this year to see how far up or how far down a player’s ranking changes after the CDSR is implemented. With that being said, there are a few things that stick out from looking at these numbers.

Rankings 2nd 2013 02 12 a

Rankings 1st 2013 02 01 b

·      First off, let’s look at where the top prospects from last years CDSR rankings would place compared to this years rankings. Since the single year rankings reflect two different years, we will stick to just comparing career averages. The top three, Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck would all fall one spot lower if they were they placed in this years rankings – meaning they would be second, third and fourth, respectively. With that said, Arizona QB Matt Scott, who is ranked first in the career average rankings, only has statistics registered for the 2012-2013 season. So Matt Scott’s ranking, while he is a solid underrated prospect, must be taken with a grain of salt.

·      Unlike Scott, who only had one full year under center at Arizona, Collin Klein had two years at the helm for Kansas State. Therefore, Klein’s noticeable jump (+7) from our player rankings to CDSR rankings can be taken more seriously since there’s a larger body of work. When we take a deeper look at Klein, there’s no doubt that the former Wildcat’s leap is greatly contributed to his ability to make plays with his feet. After all, he did amass more running touchdowns (50) than passing touchdowns (29) over his last two seasons in Manhattan. And even though we’re starting to see more quarterbacks around the league who are a threat to run, (insert RGIII, Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick here), the aptitude to drop back and make a throw into a tight window on third and long isn’t something Klein displayed during his collegiate career. Landing in the right system that can utilize his talents while also developing his passing game will be crucial to his NFL success.

·      On the other end of the spectrum Mike Glennon was our biggest faller. Ranked as our number two overall quarterback, Glennon plummeted 13 spots all the way down to 15th in the CDSR. Standing at 6-6, 232 pounds gives the signal caller prototypical size, which will immediately garner attention from NFL scouts. Throw in two consecutive years with 31 passing touchdowns and you can make the case the numbers are on the former Wolfpack’s side. However, teams should take a step back and further evaluate the North Carolina State product before pulling the trigger too soon. Last season 14 of Glennon’s 31 (throwing) scores came against Miami (FL), North Carolina and Clemson, who rank 94th, 42nd and 55th according to FootballOutsiders’ FEI defense ratings. After watching some film, its evident Glennon struggles to utilize his strong arm when facing top defenses like (22nd) Connecticut and (9th)Florida State. The Virginia native had serious problems reading coverages to make the right decision and was forced to check down most of his passes. Even though NC State was somehow able to win both games while only scoring a combined 27 points in the two affairs, Glennon’s play was underwhelming to say the least. Since this is an extremely shallow class of draftable quarterback Glennon could somehow sneak into the first round. But let’s face it; Glennon is definitely a project and not a suitable starter for the 2013 NFL season.

·      It is pretty obvious that the true winner in these rankings is Landry Jones of Oklahoma. Our own Patrick Woo values Jones as a borderline Top 10 quarterback, which, for this class, is not saying much at all. Oklahoma quarterbacks under Bob Stoops have not had much NFL success – see Jason White and Josh Heupel. Even Sam Bradford, a former number one overall pick, has not been a mind blowing NFL player. So it is understandable to disrespect the NFL potential of Landry Jones. With that said, his measurable and his numbers are pretty solid. Beyond that, the CDSR shows that he lead an efficient offense for most his career against prime defenses. This was especially the case his senior season where Big XII defenses were as strong as they have been in the last half-decade or so. Last year the stereotype of a small quarterback hurt Russell Wilson, but the CDSR showed he was worthy of more looks early on in the NFL Draft. According to our numbers this year, scouts may want to throw out the Oklahoma/system quarterback stereotype with Landry Jones and trust his solid numbers in the CDSR.

Next up for a breakdown of CDSR rankings will be the running backs draft class for 2013. Can this formula help us find out which player will be the next Alfred Morris? Find out the answers in the next set of CDSR rankings. 

**How statistics are comprised according to FootballOutsiders.com**

Offensive FEI (OFEI) - The FEI considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

Offensive Strength of Schedule (OSOS) - the likelihood that an elite offense (two standard deviations better than average) would have an above-average OE rating against each of the defenses faced by the given team.

About the Contributors

MarcoERanzi's photo

MarcoERanzi

Senior / Broadcast Journalism

Marco Ranzi is a senior majoring in broadcast journalism. Born in Manhattan, NY, Marco new resides a half hour outside the city in Ramsey, New Jersey. Growing up in the tri-state area Marco developed a passion for New York sports at a young age that translated into his interest in sports broadcasting. Currently Marco is involved with the Centre County Report, ComRadio, PSN-TV and is a TV broadcaster for the Big Ten Student U. Follow Marco @MRanzi on twitter. 

Jeffrey Lowe's photo

Jeffrey Lowe

Senior / Broadcast Journalism

Jeffrey Lowe is currently and active member in ComRadio, Big Ten Network and PSNtv. Within the next year, he hopes to add Centre County Report to that list.

Twitter: @JeffDLowe

Internships/Jobs -
2010: Intern at CBS Sports/Westwood One
2011: Intern at MLB.com
2011: TV play-by-play for Penn State basketball/Big Ten Network
2011: writer for Team USA PanAm Games Newsletter
2012: Intern at MLB.com
2012: writer for Team USA at the London Olympics

2009-2010: In his freshman year Lowe helped host his radio show, “the Sportsworld LOWEdown,” which covers all sports across the board. Some of the interviews on his show included: ESPN’s Adam Schefter, ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, Texas Longhorns C Dom Espinosa and Florida State LB Holmes Onwukaife. Lowe helped run the NCAA Selection Sunday show, and helped gather interviews which included, eventual National Runner-up coach for Butler, Brad Stevens. His work continued with the 2010 NFL Draft Show, as he jumped into the role as one of the co-producers back at the ComRadio studios. Lowe also helped blog the entire draft on ComRadio’s website. With the exception of the hours the Blue/White Game was on, ComRadio covered every pick of the draft. In terms of play-by-play work, Lowe participated in Penn State baseball broadcasts.

2010-2011: In his sophomore year Lowe helped host his new radio show, “Front Row View,” which covers all sports across the board. He also joined Thomas Frank Carr as the co-host of, “The RedZone.” Some of the interviews on the shows included: World Series winner Jeff Nelson and ESPN’s Brian Windhorst. One again, Lowe helped run the NCAA Selection Sunday show. He took over the role of lead-in-studio producer for the 2011 edition of the NFL Draft Show. With no conflicts, ComRadio was on-air live for every pick of the draft from Penn State and on the floor at Radio City Music Hall. Lowe, along with the help of the staff, published the first official ComRadio NFL Draft Scouting Bible. The 2011 NFL Draft Show included more blogging and interviews compared to the year before. In terms of play-by-play work, Lowe participated in Penn State baseball broadcasts, men’s and women’s basketball broadcasts, men’s volleyball broadcasts and coverage of Penn State football where he called play-by-play for Penn State vs. Michigan in November of 2010.

2011-2012: Lowe joined Jon Blauvelt, Dan Smith and Marco Ranzi, as he co-hosted another new show in “4-Dimensions.” He continues to co-host the, “The RedZone,” with Thomas Frank Carr. Lowe once again is a co-leader of the revamped NFL Draft Show for 2012. Unlike previous years, he will not be in studio at Penn State, as he will travel to the NFL Draft in New York City. Despite this, Lowe will help a large leadership team with a more in-depth and comprehensive coverage of the NFL Draft. More details will be released on this website in early February. In the fall, Lowe took over for Penn State alum Brian Tripp as the play-by-play man for Penn State basketball on the Big Ten Network’s Student-U programs. For ComRadio, Lowe has also broadcasted Penn State women’s basketball, and is on the schedule for bost softball and baseball. He was again apart of the Penn State football staff for ComRadio, but due to technical difficulties, his broadcast of Penn State vs. Wisconsin from Madison, did not air.

Jeffrey Lowe lives just outside of Austin, Texas in a town called Cedar Park. He grew up in Connecticut, until moving to the Lone Star State in 2004. Lowe is also currently the Public Relations Officer of Paternoville.