Final Four Predictions: Sweet 16 Edition
The first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament did not disappoint, as No. 15 Saint Peter’s knocked off No. 2 Kentucky in the first round. This is the third time a No. 15 seed has reached the Sweet Sixteen, after Florida Gulf Coast in 2016 and Oral Roberts last year.
No. 11 Iowa State and Michigan also find themselves in this year’s Sweet Sixteen, after they both recorded two upset wins to get there.
With thrilling matchups and shattered brackets imminent, the Sweet Sixteen is set to kickoff on Thursday, March 24 with No. 4 Arkansas taking on No. 1 Gonzaga.
Some brackets are already in shambles, but with the matchups set in the Sweet Sixteen, it is time for some revision and insights to who will make it to the Final Four.
Here are our updated Final Four Predictions:
Eric Fenstermaker
Duke, UNC, Arizona, Kansas
My picks are a merger between my head and my heart.
My head wants to select Texas Tech, Purdue, Arizona and Kansas, while my heart wants craziness with Duke, St. Peters, Houston and Kansas.
Duke just played solid team basketball in a win over the Michigan State Spartans and legendary coach Tom Izzo.
The Blue Devils know this is Mike Krzyzewski’s swan-song season, and Duke will get past a defensively stout Texas Tech team and an overrated Gonzaga squad to get Coach K back to the Final Four.
In the region below Duke, I think Purdue is in trouble.
UNC throttled Baylor before almost blowing their 25-point lead to the Bears. UCLA looked strong against St. Mary’s after almost falling to Akron in its first game, and St. Peter’s has Cinderella magic on its side.
In a region full of craziness, I like Roy Williams to find a way out. Give me the Tar Heels to escape from the East. I liked this team to get past Baylor in my first bracket, and I like them enough now to believe in them just a bit longer.
In the South, I’ll take Arizona, although I’m terrified that the Wildcats will fall to the Houston Cougars.
I don’t trust Villanova, and I trust Michigan even less. The winner of the Houston versus Arizona game wins this region.
The Wildcats move on because of their biggest advantage: Bennedict Mathurin.
Lastly, give me another No. 1 to move on in the Kansas Jayhawks. This is not the most talented team Bill Self has ever had, but I love their path to New Orleans.
All the Jayhawks have to do is get past an over-performing Providence squad and either Miami or Iowa State, and “Rock, Chalk Jayhawk” will find itself in the Final Four.
In the end, I want legacy versus legacy. I think Coach K gets oh so close to greatness, but Kansas (my initial runner up to Kentucky) will walk away victorious. - Eric Fenstermaker
Connor Fenix
Texas Tech, UCLA, Kansas, Villanova
Last week, I initially had Gonzaga powering through the West Region to easily reach the Final Four, but after being neck-and-neck with No. 16 Georgia State for most of the game in the first round, I don’t think this team has what it takes to secure a bid to the Final Four.
Gonzaga is set to play a very talented and eager Arkansas squad after pulling away late against Georgia State and just narrowly beating Memphis.
Texas Tech and Duke are set to square off in the Sweet Sixteen, and I believe the Red Raiders defense has the ability to slow down the Blue Devils’ fast-paced offense and send Coach K and crew home. The Red Raiders routed Montana State in the first round and rallied to beat Notre Dame in the second, but Texas Tech also holds a stellar 11-3 record in their four tournament appearances.
Resilient, persistent, and experienced, the Texas Tech defense will suppress the offenses of both Duke and Gonzaga to cruise to the Final Four.
Villanova in the Final Four may come off as a shocking pick, but this is not unfamiliar territory for Jay Wright and his squad. Villanova is a team that seems to be heating up at the right time, as it picked up victories against Delaware and Ohio State in the first and second rounds.
Villanova’s next opponent is Michigan, a team they met in the 2018 National Championship. Its late-season success has not gone unnoticed, as the Wildcats enter this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak.
The Wildcats are poised to make a deep run, with Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels being the lethal offensive weapons.
Arizona seems like the only team that could get in Villanova’s way, but the Wildcats will use their momentum to propel them back to the Final Four.
UCLA’s experience is what will prompt this team to the Final Four for the second consecutive year. After two impressive performances in the first and second round, this Bruin team is on high alert for their matchup with North Carolina after the Tar Heels ran up the score against the defending champion Baylor Bears.
UCLA is coming off a huge victory against St. Mary’s in the Round of 32, and with the leaders in Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez, the Bruins are determined and experienced enough to see the Final Four once again.
The top-seeded Kansas Jayhawks are my fourth team to earn a bid to the Final Four. This team is balanced, battle-tested and well-rounded. Kansas enters the Sweet Sixteen with wins over Texas-Southern and Creighton, but are set to face a very tough squad in the Providence Friars.
The Jayhawks are back in this tournament for revenge after they were ousted in the second round last year. Kansas and Jalen Wilson will take these next few games personally to win the Midwest Region and earn their spot in the Final Four.
With No. 2 Auburn eliminated, I don’t see another team that could pose a threat to Kansas and their top-tier offense. - Connor Fenix
Evan Smith
Gonzaga, Houston, UCLA, Kansas
I know that it’s trendy to say that Gonzaga isn’t actually the best team in this tournament, but by almost every statistical measure, they are. They didn’t look great in the round of 64, but every team has a bad day and they still won.
It seems like Arkansas’ power offense is the biggest threat to Gonzaga left in the region. When JD Notae and the Razorbacks are on, they’re one of the best teams in the nation. When they’re off, their defense finds ways to keep them in it.
Duke is always going to be a powerhouse, but they lack the experience to move much farther in the bracket. Texas Tech is a great program, but they don’t have the it factor this season.
I desperately want to put Arizona in my Final Four and I do think they’re one of the four best teams in the country. However, everytime they hold that spot, they get eliminated.
Houston was impressive in its opening weekend matchups. They look like a squad who can beat anyone in the tournament.
Neither Villanova nor Michigan are National Championship caliber this year. Michigan has the talent, but the Wolverines haven’t put it together. I haven’t been impressed by Villanova all year and they had an easy draw in the first two rounds.
Wouldn’t it be fun if St. Peter’s kept their roll? I’m sorry but it’s just not realistic. However, they could beat an unreliable Purdue team who has played down to opponents this season.
UCLA is an under-seeded team in my eyes, who have the talent to make a Final Four run. We know this because we saw it last year with virtually the same roster.
North Carolina got hot at the right time, but they are outmatched by both Purdue and UCLA.
Kansas is the team I predicted to win it all as they can beat any team in the country. They drew a Sweet 16 matchup with the luckiest team in college basketball, Providence.
I predicted Miami to go on a run, and I believe they can keep it going past Iowa State. However, the talent gap between these two matchups is significant. Expect the winner of Providence vs. Kansas to make it out of the region. - Evan Smith
Jameson Kramer
Texas Tech, UCLA, Arizona, Kansas
These four teams made up my original field to duke it out in New Orleans, and the first two rounds only strengthened my preconceived notions of these squads. Made up of two different top-seeded teams, a three seed and a four seed, this field has both some surprises and the usual suspects, a combination often seen in the Final Four.
I have the Texas Tech Red Raiders coming out of the West region, but their path to Louisiana will certainly not be an easy one. The West region is the only region to have all four of the top four seeded teams actually make the Sweet 16.
The Red Raiders will have to go through the second seeded Duke Blue Devils, who have been playing very well so far this tournament. Duke beat a good Michigan State squad in the round of 32, but I think their inexperience combined with the added pressure of Coach K’s last season will result in them coming up short.
Defeating either Arkansas or number one overall seeded Gonzaga will not be an easy task by any means, but both teams have had their fair share of struggles so far. Texas Tech’s defense has propelled them to big victories in both games, and it will continue to do so.
The UCLA Bruins were my pick to win it all, and that was before the top two seeded teams in the East were both eliminated before the Sweet 16. UCLA has had some scares so far, trailing Akron for much of the game, but pulling it out in the end. They followed up their questionable performance with a domination of fifth seeded Saint Mary’s, and have great momentum going forward.
The Buins draw a matchup with North Carolina in the Sweet 16, avoiding the defending national champions, the Baylor Bears. North Carolina is streaking, but UCLA’s talent level should be the difference maker.
Saint Peter’s has been the Cinderella story of this region and the entire bracket, but their luck should run out soon here, likely against Purdue. The health of UCLA star Jaime Jaquez Jr. is something to monitor moving forward, his availability is crucial to the Bruins success.
The Arizona Wildcats are my pick to represent the Midwest region in New Orleans, and to go to the championship as well.
Arizona was a popular pick to win the tournament, and rightfully so. Their combination of size and shooting is unmatched, and they showed grit in their overtime win against TCU in the round of 32. Arizona’s confidence is brimming, but they face stiff competition in Houston and potentially Villanova or Michigan. Houston has been dominating thus far, and will be more than ready for the challenge come Thursday.
My last pick to reach the Final Four is the Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks have seen both the two and three seeds fall to much lower ranked teams, and avoided a narrow elimination against underseeded Creighton.
Providence will be their toughest competition by far, as the Friars have been dominating the competition on their path to the Sweet 16.
In the other matchup Iowa State and Miami face off, both of which are double digit seeds. Both teams have been playing well above expectation so far, but their talent level just won’t be enough to match up with Kansas. - Jameson Kramer
Eric Fenstermaker is a fourth-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email him at esf5129@psu.edu.
Connor Fenix is a third-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email cjf5726@psu.edu.
Evan Smith is a first-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email ers5828@psu.edu.
Jameson Kramer is a third-year majoring in broadcast journalism. To contact him, email jek5650@psu.edu.
